Premier League, Bundesliga and Jupiler Pro League Prediction

Predictions matchday 15: Premier League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
ChelseaNewcastle1NoUnder1-03-1
BrightonLiverpoolXYesUnder1-11-5
EvertonHuddersfield1NoUnder2-02-0
LeicesterBurnleyXYesUnder1-11-0
StokeSwanseaXNoUnder0-02-1
WatfordTottenham2NoOver0-31-1
West BromCrystal Palace1NoUnder1-00-0
ArsenalMan United1NoUnder1-01-3
BournemouthSouthampton1NoUnder1-01-1
Man CityWest Ham1YesOver5-02-1
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Predictions matchday 14: Bundesliga
HomeAway1X2BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
FreiburgHamburg1NoUnder1-00-0
MainzAugsburgXYesUnder1-11-3
LeverkusenDortmund1YesOver2-11-1
Bayern MunichHannover1NoOver3-03-1
HoffenheimRB LeipzigXYesUnder1-14-0
Werder BremenStuttgart1NoUnder1-01-0
Schalke 04FC Koln1NoUnder1-02-2
HerthaEin frankfurt2NoUnder0-11-2
WolfsburgM'Gladbach2YesOver1-33-0
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Predictions matchday 17: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
CharleroiOostende1NoUnder1-01-1
LokerenAnderlecht2NoUnder0-21-2
KortrijkWaasland-BeverenXYesUnder1-14-1
MouscronSt TruidenXYesOver2-21-1
MechelenGenkXYesUnder1-13-2
StandardAntwerpXYesUnder1-11-1
EupenClub Brugge2YesOver1-22-2
WaregemGent2YesOver1-20-1
SOURCE: Full cover betting

Prediction Premier League Matchday 14

Prediction Matchday 14: Premier League
HomeAway
Brighton10Crystal Palace
Leicester02Tottenham
Watford02Man United
West Brom10Newcastle
Arsenal30Huddersfield
Bournemouth01Burnley
Chelsea00Swansea
Everton11West Ham
Man City30Southampton
Stoke23Liverpool
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Bundesliga

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Bundesliga
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
HannoverStuttgart2YesOver2-00-2
DortmundSchalke 041NoOver1-14-4
Ein FrankfurtLeverkusen2YesOver1-20-1
AugsburgWolfsburg1YesUnder1-12-1
RB LeipzigWerder Bremen1YesOver1-02-0
M'gladbachBayern Munich2NoUnder0-22-1
HamburgHoffenheim2YesOver0-23-0
FC KolnHertha1NoUnder0-10-2
FreiburgMainz1NoUnder0-02-1
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Poisson Prediction Matchday 13 Premier League

My first attempt to make a Poisson prediction for round 13 of the English Premier League.
If the model is correct it is going to be a boring round, with only 14 goals :(
Poisson Prediction Matchday 13: Premier League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
West HamLeicester2YesOver1-21-1
Crystal PalaceStoke1NoUnder1-12-1
Man UnitedBrighton1NoUnder2-01-0
NewcastleWatford1YesOver1-10-3
SwanseaBournemouth1YesUnder0-00-0
TottenhamWest Brom1NoUnder1-01-1
LiverpoolChelsea1YesUnder0-01-1
southamptonEverton1NoUnder1-04-1
BurnleyArsenal2YesUnder1-00-1
HuddersfieldMan City2NoUnder0-21-2
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good luck, Dremeber

Poisson Prediction Jupiler Pro League Matchday 16

Hi all,

Last week the Poisson model had a good week:
1X2: 5 out of 8 correct
BTTS: 4 out of 8 correct
Over/Under 2.5: 5 out of 8 correct
Correct score: A whooping 3 out of 8 correct

Let's see if this week Poisson Prediction for the Belgians Jupiler Pro League will be as good.

Poisson Prediction Matchday 16: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
GentMouscron1NoUnder0-03-1
AntwerpMechelen1YesOver2-00-0
OostendeEupen1YesOver3-21-0
St TruidenLokeren1NoUnder1-10-0
Waasland-BeverenCharleroi2NoUnder1-10-2
GenkStandard1YesOver0-00-2
AnderlechtKortrijk1NoOver1-04-0
Club BruggeWaregem1YesOver2-03-2
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good Luck, Dremeber

Poisson prediction matchday 15: Jupiler Pro League

Here is my Poisson prediction for Matchday 15 of the Belgian Jupiler Pro League!

Poisson prediction Matchday 15: Jupiler Pro League
HomeAway1X2 BTTS Over/Under 2.5Correct ScoreResult
CharleroiMechelen1YesUnder2-02-0
MouscronAnderlecht2YesOver1-21-2
EupenAntwerp2YesOver1-20-1
KortrijkSt Truiden1NoUnder1-03-2
StandardOostende1YesUnder1-10-0
WaregemGenk1NoUnder1-20-1
Club BruggeWaasland-Beveren1NoOver3-03-0
LokerenGent2NoUnder0-10-3
SOURCE: Full Cover Betting

Good luck, Dremeber

October recap

October was a good, maybe even a great month.

I did manage to create a profit, which makes it good. The total profit can still rise, due to the fact that 2 games from a 3 fold acca draw have to be played.

But I also made some mistakes. The biggest one, is that I did place to many acca’s on the last match day of the moment.
The idea behind this was that I was happy with my 50+ profit and that I was sure that at least one acca would land.

But it was a worth full lesson. Glad that I did made the mistake.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:


75 accas played, a total ante of €154,72 and a total pay-out of €211,71. This gives us a profit of €55,43. A very healthy ROI of 35,47%.

SixFold Win Acca
The biggest profit was made with the Sixfold Win acca’s. Good for almost halve the profit.

This could have been much better. From the 3 loosing tickets, 2 of them only had 1 incorrect. One was lost due to a missed penalty in the 85th minute.

Will be a keeper. But only on matchday where I can pick from more than 40 matches.

Trifold Draw FC
These are full cover bets, on 3 draws. In the beginning I did play the singles doubles and the trebles. But after investigating my results, I did eliminate the single bets.

16 tickets were played. 6 with the renewed ante (€2,5) and then with the old staking plan (€4).

One ticket was landed nicely. Good for a pay-out of €53,61.
Only one other ticket came close with 2 correct draws. Still good for a small profit.

Overall a €14,79 profit, with a ROI of 26,89%. Will continue these in November. One correct per month should be good enough to ensure a profit.

Fourfold Mixed
4 games on these tickets, consisting of 1X2, Over and BTTS bets. Mostly I did combine bankers with higher odds.

Played 11 of these in October, and it delivered a profit of €8,82. Still a ROI of 52,81%. The ROI is so high due to the fact that the ante per tickets in lower than the other Accas. How more games on the betting slip, how lower my ante is.

Only one win, good enough for a pay-out of €25,52.
Will be a keeper for next month.

Trifold O2.5

Betting slips with 3 games over 2.5 goals. I did expect a higher profit from this acca type.
Played 13 of these and it delivered a profit of €3,76. 4 winning tickets and 4 with only  incorrect.

This is one of the corner stones of my betting plan.

Trifold Win
Shocking that this stands so low on the profit list. It is my betting type with the highest ante in total. Good for a small profit of €2,03. Only a ROI of 8,21%, which is still better than bringing money to the bank J

Only 3 winning tickets here, which should be higher next month. Lots of near wins with 5 tickets with only 1 incorrect. Just like the overs, this is one of the corner stones of my betting plan.

Tennis Double
Did only started playing these on the last days of the month. Based on the twitter account of @UpTheStakes.

2 tickets played, 2 tickets won. Shouldn’t it always be like this? To be honnest not enough info to make a conclusion. Will continue to play these in November with a max of 2 per day!

We are now moving to the tickets were I can learn from J

Trifold BTTS
For me personally one of the hardest to play. Most of the time I underestimate the situations in which an underdog still nets a goal. This turns this betting type into a red one. A loss of €-4,33 is recorded.

Played 12 times, with an average ante of 1,5 per ticket. Only 2 wins and only 2 near wins. So more research has to be done. But I do consider the BTTS together with the 3fold win and over, the cornerstones of my betting plan. For the moment, no reason the wipe out these bets.

SixFold Over Acca
Only played 2 tickets. Both tickets didn’ have a chance L
Will play a few of them next month. When it stays a loosing Acca, then it will be eliminated from December onwards.

So overall a good month. But still a lot of improvement can be made.

From now on, the blog will only be used to do recaps or brag about winning tickets. The bets itself are tweeted on my twitter account. @FullCoverBet.

Cheers,
Dremeber